7.0 Analysis of results
In the final part of the series, it is time to analyse the results of the NFL math model. Here are each's team predictions for season interceptions, together with the outcomes of the 26 individual bets.
The confidence level of each pick is in the third column. The teams are ranked in order of their unlisted Kelly % - a measure of hypothetical profitability - rather than their win %. This is because the best odds on offer about each proposition varied.
|New Orleans Saints||OVER 12.5||69.8||%||WON|
|New England Patriots||UNDER 22.0||69.5||%||WON|
|Chicago Bears||UNDER 20.0||66.8||%||LOST|
|Baltimore Ravens||OVER 16.5||67.4||%||LOST|
|Philadelphia Eagles||UNDER 18.5||64.7||%||WON|
|Dallas Cowboys||UNDER 18.0||64.1||%||WON|
|Arizona Cardinals||OVER 14.0||63.4||%||WON|
|Tennessee Titans||OVER 14.0||62.8||%||WON|
|Denver Broncos||OVER 13.5||61.4||%||WON|
|Buffalo Bills||UNDER 18.5||62.0||%||WON|
|Oakland Raiders||OVER 15.5||60.5||%||LOST|
|New York Jets||UNDER 17.5||60.9||%||WON|
|Kansas City Chiefs||UNDER 18.5||59.9||%||WON|
|Indianapolis Colts||OVER 11.5||59.2||%||WON|
|Jacksonville Jaguars||OVER 15.0||60.1||%||LOST|
|New York Giants||UNDER 18.5||58.6||%||LOST|
|Carolina Panthers||UNDER 17.5||59.0||%||WON|
|Detroit Lions||UNDER 18.0||58.1||%||WON|
|Houston Texans||OVER 16.5||57.0||%||LOST|
|Cleveland Browns||OVER 13.5||58.1||%||WON|
|Green Bay Packers||UNDER 24.5||58.9||%||WON|
|Miami Dolphins||UNDER 16.0||56.7||%||WON|
|Minnesota Vikings||OVER 11.5||57.3||%||LOST|
|San Francisco '49ers||UNDER 20.5||55.8||%||WON|
|Atlanta Falcons||UNDER 19.0||55.0||%||LOST|
|Washington Redskins||OVER 14.5||54.2||%||WON|
- The 26 Selections went 18-8 overall, a win percentage of 69.2%.
- The nine best bets went 7-2 (77.8% strike-rate); the next best nine were 6-3 (66.7%) and the remainder 5-3 (62.5%). This is a particularly satisfactory result as far as staking is concerned.
- The entire portfolio showed a 133.2% return on investment at the listed stakes and odds. Had level staking been adopted (the initial £1000 divided into 26 bundles of £38.46) the ROI would have been 128.3%.
- There was a total excess of 87.5 interceptions compared with the market's projections, or 3.4 interceptions per team. There is a very large margin and strongly indicates the portfolio was extremely robust. In other words, this is an exploitable market and will remain so - and there are plenty of others like it in sport.